Climate : l'Paris agreement in the face of l'unknown Trump

Record-breaking temperatures in the Arctic, reactivity new of the Greenland ice cap… The findings alarming have continued to flood in of all the sensitive points in 2016. And for people who care about the preservation of the environment, the fight against global warming, the subject of a global agreement history in December 2015, is now threatened by the unknown Trump.
The year 2016 was, however, previously took place on the diplomatic level : the covenant to eliminate the gas HFC to the resolutions of the air transport to limit its carbon emissions, through the Paris agreement, which entered into force in November. The election of Donald Trump to the White House, in the full annual conference of theunited nations (COP22) in Morocco, came to shower the enthusiasm of the defenders of the climate.

“In the waiting “

           "We are waiting ", said Thomas Spencer, the Institute of international relations, based in Paris : "What will be the true policy of the presidency, Trump ? How will react the other powers ? "The United States, the second issuer of global greenhouse gas (14-15 % of global emissions) after China, will not necessarily withdraw from the agreement of Paris. But the president used during his campaign outputs anti-climate positions and pro-deregulation, can slow down an already implemented complex, which involves turning coal, oil and gas, the source of 80 % of the warming.
Hard to ignore that the government in the course of training in Washington is full of "people who have spent their adult life to drill or to promote fossil fuels," notes the the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. Appointed to the department of State, Rex Tillerson has worked forty years for the oil giant ExxonMobil. And the man is close to a Russia that does not ratify the Paris agreement before 2019 or 2020, as indicated by an adviser to the Kremlin.
<h3>Towards a relaxation of standards ?</h3>
The american scientists are already seeing the clouds getting : threats to the climate fund Nasa, survey of the scientists... What about also the financial commitments taken in Paris with regard to the poorest countries, the development of which should be through clean energy if the planet is to remain livable ? The election "may not be" a disaster ", but it will necessarily slow down the process, " says Michael Oppenheimer, professor at Princeton (New Jersey), a specialist in energy policy.
Donald Trump will not be able to contradict a market that sees the coal to decline in favour of gas, or the cost of renewable energy collapse. Away from the transition energy would deprive the United States of opportunities, underline the experts. On the other hand might come back on some aid aiming to support the law, Obama on the pollution of the air. Or lend an ear more attentive to the car manufacturers wanting a relaxation of the emissions standards.
<h3>3 °C of temperature rise</h3>
This expected slowdown "will also hesitation of other countries," says Oppenheimer, who thinks India, the fourth issuer global, " still ambivalent about the importance of the effort against global warming. "This is a test that is fascinating ", said Thomas Spencer. "The Paris agreement does it serve to something ? Can he stabilize the action when the context is less favourable ? The signals sent by China and India show that they care ", particularly because of their particular interest (fight against pollution, challenges of innovation, etc), adds the expert.
But that may now provide the impetus in these fragile and lengthy international negotiations ? Some see the German chancellor Angela Merkel. Others are waiting for the next G20 as the appointment-key. At the COP22, in November, the international community has, in any case, reaffirmed its commitment to the climate, in a " Marrakesh declaration ". The geopolitical unit is intact, insists Pascal Canfin, director of WWF France. At the same time, he complained, "the whole energy policy of the COP22 was used to resist the potential upheaval," american and has not allowed us to strengthen the commitments.
However, the world must switch to the higher speed if it wants to contain global warming under + 2 °C since pre-industrial times : at this stage, the national plans bring the planet to + 3 °C, an increase synonym of disordered clumps. The concentration of CO2 in the air reached a record level, even if, thanks to China, the emissions of fossil fuels have been stable for the third year. And the scientists have just launched the alert on a boom unexplained methane, more warming than CO2. "The margin for action narrows, as we have waited before acting," says Myles Allen, a climatologist at the university of Oxford.

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